Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 163.752487 198.095851 240.475779 297.555498 373.910465 4.747703e+02 6.220598e+02
2025-01-12 124.698822 164.671212 220.414369 307.033462 444.691393 6.679002e+02 1.089383e+03
2025-01-19 99.594324 139.027324 198.576652 300.686624 484.900402 8.367232e+02 1.672213e+03
2025-01-26 90.211144 132.478710 201.234903 331.027459 597.941616 1.209662e+03 3.144170e+03
2025-02-02 82.364820 126.028131 201.555376 356.427004 715.162773 1.698688e+03 5.991241e+03
2025-02-09 75.521248 119.564347 199.804010 376.680096 833.712193 2.330594e+03 1.181067e+04
2025-02-16 69.122048 112.536387 195.118644 388.808103 940.843522 3.088226e+03 2.396514e+04
2025-02-23 63.543287 105.966375 189.746740 397.426664 1045.806818 4.041759e+03 5.332559e+04
2025-03-02 57.374386 97.304175 178.285155 387.234303 1085.692674 4.790422e+03 1.078405e+05
2025-03-09 52.198150 89.843606 168.008186 377.094052 1121.616348 5.643180e+03 2.476030e+05
2025-03-16 47.423465 82.573519 156.919216 361.594657 1129.093493 6.368246e+03 5.952215e+05
2025-03-23 46.545874 83.045492 163.348474 398.695692 1390.329086 1.041099e+04 5.174396e+07
2025-03-30 43.473411 78.739748 158.259876 400.802875 1505.178529 1.392988e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 41.463351 76.457435 157.728832 418.041118 1726.332151 2.161997e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 38.487746 71.711337 150.212716 409.065480 1791.426540 2.761730e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 38.043240 72.512420 157.117642 454.988391 2290.200252 6.274548e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 37.219523 72.334165 161.409758 493.830218 2837.718955 1.563051e+05 NaN
2025-05-04 36.134037 71.399969 163.439191 525.077520 3417.848510 4.529879e+05 NaN
2025-05-11 34.750130 69.582580 162.598496 543.906203 3945.953539 1.538952e+06 NaN
2025-05-18 33.332139 67.520991 160.677699 557.339141 4477.409757 8.594861e+06 NaN
2025-05-25 31.349870 63.862786 153.326613 541.458177 4582.266629 3.325236e+07 NaN
2025-06-01 29.547178 60.498551 146.431874 525.719555 4672.524538 3.051052e+08 NaN
2025-06-08 27.723442 56.930410 138.438176 501.782798 4589.948828 5.332794e+09 NaN